8th Annual Forecast Survey 2016-17


Contributed by: Kunal Sabnis, CFA

IAIP conducted the most comprehensive survey to forecast economic and market expectations for FY16-17. This survey had 635 respondents from various fields of Finance and Investments. Saurav Mishra, CFA, Director IAIP presented the survey findings.

Findings of the survey were as follows

  • 58% expect Equities to be the best asset class followed corporate and government bonds at 9% each
  • 69% feel that GDP growth will range between 6.5% -7.5%
  • 60% expect inflation to range between 4.5%-6%
  • 73% expect 10 year G-Sec yield to range between 6.5%-7.5%
  • Brent’s forecast had a very wide range but 65% feel is should hover between $35-$50/barrel
  • Majority of respondents expect Gold to trade between $1100-$1300 per ounce
  • 28% expect USD-INR exchange rate to range between 66-68 followed 22% who voted for 68-70
  • 35% respondents believe Sensex should close FY17 between INR 28,000 to INR 30,000
  • 85% feel Sensex EPS growth will range between 0-15%
  • 39% believe Government Policy Actions and Economic Reforms will be the key driver of Equities followed by 22% who feel Corporate profits would be more critical
  • 44% feel Global low growth environment and Deflation risk will be the most critical concerns for Indian economic growth
  • 42% respondents expect their compensation to grow between 10%-20% followed closely by 0%-10%


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