8th Annual Forecast Survey 2016-17

Contributed by: Kunal Sabnis, CFA

IAIP conducted the most comprehensive survey to forecast economic and market expectations for FY16-17. This survey had 635 respondents from various fields of Finance and Investments. Saurav Mishra, CFA, Director IAIP presented the survey findings.

Findings of the survey were as follows

• 58% expect Equities to be the best asset class followed corporate and government bonds at 9% each
• 69% feel that GDP growth will range between 6.5% -7.5%
• 60% expect inflation to range between 4.5%-6%
• 73% expect 10 year G-Sec yield to range between 6.5%-7.5%
• Brent’s forecast had a very wide range but 65% feel is should hover between $35-$50/barrel
• Majority of respondents expect Gold to trade between $1100-$1300 per ounce
• 28% expect USD-INR exchange rate to range between 66-68 followed 22% who voted for 68-70
• 35% respondents believe Sensex should close FY17 between INR 28,000 to INR 30,000
• 85% feel Sensex EPS growth will range between 0-15%
• 39% believe Government Policy Actions and Economic Reforms will be the key driver of Equities followed by 22% who feel Corporate profits would be more critical
• 44% feel Global low growth environment and Deflation risk will be the most critical concerns for Indian economic growth
• 42% respondents expect their compensation to grow between 10%-20% followed closely by 0%-10%

-KS