The Allocation Edge: Timing Mutual Funds and ETFs | Kolkata
“Buy and hold” is sold to investors as the default. In practice, investors rarely earn what their funds earn. They add money after rallies and exit during falls, and the drawdowns that cause this are seldom discussed. This session examines whether rules-based timing and allocation across Indian mutual funds and ETFs adds value over buy-and-hold, and where that value actually comes from.
The session covers:
The behaviour gap: buy-and-hold as a marketing pitch vs. what investors actually earn, and why drawdowns are the conversation the industry avoids.
The question: whether timing works at all for fund investors, tested on Indian index, sector and strategy-index data.
Data and method: Total Return Index data from niftyindices, point-in-time rules, next-day execution and realistic transaction costs. The cash leg uses a liquid ETF.
Trend following on individual indices: How to cut drawdown in half while still reaping 80% of the strategy indices move.
Rotation models: monthly momentum rotation across asset-class ETFs (Indian equity, gold, US equity), sectors and factor indices, with a trend filter and a move to debt when the filter is off.
Attribution: how much of the excess return comes from diversification, how much from selection and how much from timing.
Robustness: in-sample and out-of-sample results, parameter sensitivity, overfitting checks, and behaviour in 2008, 2013, 2020 and 2024.
Implementation: ETF liquidity, costs, rebalancing discipline, and how fund investors can run allocation using a dynamic debt sleeve.
Limitations: what the backtests cannot tell you.
Participants will leave with a tested framework for allocating across mutual funds and ETFs, an evidence-based view of what timing can and cannot deliver, and the metrics to judge any allocation strategy they are shown.
EVENT DETAILS
Date- 20th November 2026
Time- 6:00 pm to 8:00 pm (Followed by Dinner)
Venue- The Conclave, Kolkata
Manish Dhawan
Manish has been a full time investor for 14 years now. He created the Mystic Wealth Advisory that ran Momentum and Value strategies for clients. He has Deep expertise in momentum trading, trend following, and behavioural finance where he combines quantitative models with market wisdom for dynamic portfolio management. He was also the Co-host of a Podcast on Investing, ‘STOIC TALKS’. Prior to Mystic Wealth, Manish had more than a decade of experience in Knowledge Process Outsourcing at companies like American Express and Hyper Quality.
Varenya Agrawal
Co Founder @ Inflo
Varenya is a full time investor apart from being the co-founder at Inflo. He manages his family money using value and momentum approaches in the Equity Markets. In the past, Varenya worked with Deutsche Bank in their Singapore office with the Capital Markets team. Varenya has a Masters Degree in Business and IT from the University of Melbourne.