“Person of the Year 2024” by Navneet Munot, CFA

Like every year there were many contenders.

Don is back dodging bullets by the ear. He can claim the year. Criminal convictions? Courtroom speed bumps. Impeachment? Old news. Age? Merely a number. Nothing could stump Trump. MAGAnimous victory makes Capitol Hill Trump’s Red property.

A Lone Musk(eteer) stole the show. Now poised to bull-DOGE government inefficiency with a sharp aXe. Trumpian tower’s cabinet is a republic of billionaires and hawks. Bye-bye Multilateralism, Buy-buy Mercantilism.

History rhymes. In 1924, Immigration Act imposed immigration quotas while the Revenue Act cut taxes. A slew of acts that decade upheld high protectionist tariffs to boost domestic industry. Sounds familiar in Trump’s ‘America First’? They risk economic isolation, societal division and reduced global influence – lessons history repeatedly warned against.

Biden, Kamala and company delivered decent: Infrastructure, growth, jobs and a mega stock market rally. But couldn’t construct a MAGA-grade narrative.

In a world where the poor get handouts, the rich ride market booms and get bailouts, while the middle class is left out, its frustration is finding a voice.

Yes, what kept us captivated in 2024 is the dance of democracy. Elections everywhere. Almost. Left-leaning promises, right-wing resurgence, centrist bargains, and everything in between. No matter where you stand, people’s voice remains the most unpredictable political force.

PM Ishiba gambled with early elections leading to LDP losing. President Yoon was impeached after a fleeting flirtation with martial law. In politics, as in life, some gambles are best left unplayed.

Argentina, a serial defaulter, delivered a historic fiscal surplus under Javier Milei. Claudia Sheinbaum smashed Mexico’s glass ceiling. Prabowo swept Indonesia.

Tories got torn, Starmer’s labor stormed Downing Street. The UK hopes Rachel can Reevive (pun intended) the economy. The French PM’s office borrows a revolving door. Polls served fries to Macron and pastries to Le Pen. Quintessential France: chaos with chic luxury. Meloni combines graceful charm with calculative balancing.

Scholz’s coalition creaks – political fragmentation, immigration tensions, energy strains and economic pains. The German powerhouse is running with tiring turbines. Ask Volkswagen.

Zelensky braces as Trump’s return threatens funding cuts and potentially cripples Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Russia tightened its grip on the mineral-rich and fertile east, while Ukraine faces the colossal task of post-war reconstruction. Navalny’s death in prison cast a dark shadow while Russian influence looms over Georgia’s political future.

Bashar al-Assad fled Syria. History rewritten after five decades. Mighty support from Iran and Russia fell short. Master strategist Al-Jolani is the man of the moment. Let’s hope for lasting peace.

The Red Sea froze, the Middle-East boiled, trade routes turned into troubled waters. Israel’s His-high(handed)ness Bibi is hitting hard on Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis heedless of the human toll. ICJ watched helplessly as diplomacy died 365 deaths. Common citizens endured uncommon grief.

A tough year for Iran: prolific leaders lost, proxies pummeled, its prominence receding. Turkey seizing the moment, tightens borders and nudges refugees homeward. It’s Erdogan vs Netanyahu currently: two strongmen circling the ring, the region still unraveling the ancient tapestry of Arabs, Ottomans and Israelis. Whether dialogue or destruction prevails will define the next chapter in this saga.

China’s ageing population and the 3 I’s—Inflation, Interest rates, and Imports—signal a slow march toward Japanification. Bears reined in the unpredictable economic jungle until Xi’s played his checkers: coercing institutions into stocks, introducing fiscal stimulus, loosening monetary policy, and unveiling a property package. The mix, alongwith valuation discounts, lured reluctant Bulls into the China shop.

Trump’s ‘America Only’ doctrine nudging Jinping to mend ties globally while doubling down on innovation. Chinese EVs flooded Europe, giving others a run for their power. China-Taiwan conflict? If ever, an internal unrest reaches Xi’s doorstep. BRICS expanded beyond core bricks.

Ramlala is back in Ayodhya, rewriting history after five centuries. Modi is back for the third time, rewriting history after six decades.

What’s common between Russia and Ukraine, the US and Iran, Israel and Palestine? India’s strategic friendships. A partner to the US and Israel, yet warmth towards Persia, Putin and Palestine. The art of strategic balancing.

India delivered a stern ‘Just out’ to Justin’s reps – be mindful when meddling with Modi. Maldives’ Muizzu mended ties for a $760 million lifeline. Sheikh Hasina ousted, minorities persecuted, Yunus inducted: turbulent days in Bangladesh. Recent snapshots capture something: Indian and Chinese soldiers exchanging sweets, Jaishankar sharing high- Chai in Pakistan, Sri Lankan president visiting Delhi and the Foreign Secretary in Dhaka.

India progresses on PAN (Ports, Airports, Networking) and RRR (Railways, Roads, Renewables). DigitalYatra dazzles. What’s the next big act? Social infrastructure ready for its close-up – improving lives systematically for Laapataa Ladies and 12th Fail . Let’s prepare for the Post-AI world reshaping jobs and livelihoods.

Nitish and Naidu deliver NDA (Non Disruptive Assurance). A slew of state elections highlighted: ‘All we imagine as light’ are Ladki (s) and Behna (s). Social security net for dignified living is laudable. JAM trinity delivers it well. Welfare shouldn’t devolve into wholesale revdi giveaways undermining sustainability. NEET stirs a storm. Scars of RGKar hospital cut deep.

We bid TATA to Apro Ratan, the real jewel of India. He was the tallest, literally and figuratively. We remember Narayan Vaghul, the institution builder, Fali Nariman, the legal luminary, Shyam Benegal, fabled filmmaker and Bibek Debroy, the gifted Deb. Maestro Zakir Hussain, Pankaj Udhas and Ameen Sayani leave a silence that echoes.

Das, the award-winning central banker, did a balancing act: taming the inflation Elephant while adding Horsepower to growth. Checks on unsecured lending – RBI@90 retains prudence over popularity. Opinions divided on currency interventions curbing volatility – a larger vision of internationalizing the Rupee? Shakti hands over the chariot to Sanjay on a Neutral stand. All eyes on experienced engineer’s moves on IIT – INR, Interest rates, and Transitioning the financial sector for future.

The Greatest Indian wedding unfolded at an Anant (infinite) scale. Vistara got AI branding. Quickcommerce impacting Kirana eco-system has wider repercussions. Hindenburg flunked its own KYC—Know Your Content.

India’s Atma Nirbharta in capital flows got firmed. SIPs tested on dips. Earnings revival and valuation correction could make foreigners FPI : Fiercely Positive on India. Defense and Railway stocks had a bullet run. Promoters – MNCs, Indians, PE, VC – raked it in a record IPO year. Hyundai took a generous slice of the pie. SME IPOs were as hot as Coldplay concerts. F&O traders splurge money on Jane street.

A year of gleaming greenback, soaring S&P, glitzy gold and shining silver. Trump’s policy concoction makes it tough for the Fed to feed cheap money. Post Covid lows, my bet on rates has been – ‘higher for longer’. The yin and yang of Yen carry trades triggers turbulence. Within EMs, bears bared their claws on Brazil. Oil remained dull. Bitcoin at $100K is a bubbling bounty for believers and bitter bite for bashers – nothing Cryptic about it. Math-maestro Jim Simons’ Medallion minted magic on Wall Street.

Crowdstrike gave a HardMacro stroke to Microsoft users. DoJ browses Google’s monopoly. Mark’s Meta mints billions, Reality Labs still bites. Coach couldn’t bag Michael Kors. Roberto Cavalli crafted his final design. UnitedHealth CEO’s untimely death spotlighted America’s healthcare complexities. Honda-Nissan steering an Accord of love.

Jensen Huang powers GPU (Genius Processing Units!) and fuels AI (Astounding Innovation!). Don’t be eNvious, everyone vying to be Nvidia. Masa San is going all-in. GenAI was my person of the year in 2022, and I am more certain, a great transformation is ahead. In the 19th century factories fueled the Industrial era, the 20th brought the Information Age, the 21st belongs to the Intelligence revolution.

Big Tech echoes the imperialism of the Industrial era: monarchs chased land and labor for resources, tech giants chase our time and attention – the ultimate asset. Imperialist enslaved hands; tech imperialism seeks to capture minds. Stark similarities in strategies too. Two distinctions offer hope it won’t go as far: democratic institutions have the power to regulate these empires, and today’s tech “monarchs” answerable to many stakeholders, not dynasties.

I reflect on Daniel Kahneman’s legacy: Nothing in life is as important as you think it is, while you are thinking about it. Timeless truth.

Incredibly inspiring candidates were Gisèle Pelicot, symbol of enduring hardship with unwavering courage; and Simone Biles, the GOAT Gymnast. I revere these 2 Strees.

Rohit’s boys got ‘unforgettable’ T-20 victory. Ash won hearts. A historic fable in the medal table for India’s Paralympians: more Gold in 2024 than the tally since 1968! Vinesh gains tons of sympathy. Manu Bhaker shot multiple records. India’s charming chess champions were a strong contender. Prodigy Gukesh is my hero.

Wow Yusuf Dikeç – Dhichkyaoon! Young Yamal netted the Euros. Juan Soto’s $765 million contract is a historic home run . McLaren finally sees the chequered flag. Rafa, the legendary tiger roared: I came, I played, I slammed.

Maggie Smith, taught A-bbe-C of living larger while living longer. RIP, Prof McGonagall. Directioners mourn Liam Payne. Nobuyo Oyama, the timeless voice of Doraemon left an indelible mark on a generation’s childhood.

Peter Higgs leaves a legacy of God’s particles. In 2024, scientific breakthroughs felt like plot twists from the future. From Fusion’s spark achieving net energy gain to CRISPR sharpening its gene-editing precision, from successfully cloning of a rhesus monkey to the first functional graphene semiconductor. Neuralink implanted the first brain microchip ushering a new era of brain-computer interface. Google’s quantum chip, Willow, solved in minutes what would take supercomputers eons.

Climate change turned up the heat—literally. 2024 broke the record as the hottest year. From Rio’s G20 to Baku’s COP, leaders scrambled to ‘zero in on Net Zero’, while carbon markets and renewables pledges gained steam. Mark my message: complacency on climate change is existentially expensive.

I also think the world stands at the cusp of an investment cycle – out of compulsion. A polarising world bulking up defense budgets and a shift in supply-chains, climate change prompting overhaul of existing systems, and AI adoption rewiring everything. Pager attack sends a reaffirming message for localisation. When disruptions strike, the world rebuilds—bigger, broader, and, hopefully, smarter.

It’s in the darkness of existential threats and crippling compulsions that latent talent of mankind transforms into ideas and inventions. India hit its economic nadir in 1991 when it mortgaged gold reserves. In the heat of that embarrassment, an economy of entrepreneurs was born. In its boyhood, we saw the rise of IT services, in its adolescence we saw a wave of e-commerce in all hues becoming unicorns. As the adolescent comes of age, we now see an early wave of Deep-Tech startups. India’s home to over 3000 deep-tech startups fueled by daring minds and daring money. Likes of Agnikul and GalaxEye aim for the stars with innovative satellites and start-up swagger. In the shadows of the advanced Harappan civilisation of yore, Tata Electronics is building a semiconductor fab in Dholera. String Bio converting methane into speciality chemicals employing engineered microbes. Pandorum building platforms to manufacture personalised ‘homo-chippiens’ and human organs on demand. Many will fail, but what will last is the wave of impact, solving challenges and re-defining life.

Indian mathematicians gave mankind the concept of zero – Imagine computing without it. The ‘quantum’ impact of Indian deeptech in the years ahead will be a true tribute to Aryabhatta.

Standing ovation to the ‘New Age of Indian Deep Tech’, my Person of the Year 2024.

Wish you a great 2025.

Disclaimer: “Any views or opinions represented in this blog are personal and belong solely to the author and do not represent views of CFA Society India or those of people, institutions or organizations that the owner may or may not be associated with in professional or personal capacity, unless explicitly stated.”